拉斯维加斯9888

汇报：Does More Finance Lead to More Crises

汇报人：Jia Chen(Fisher College of Business，The Ohio State University)

功夫：2012年2月22日（周三）10:00-11:30am

地址：拉斯维加斯9888新楼217教室

提要：Economists have argued that finance can facilitate growth and increase stability. There are, however, reasons that finance, especially the quantity of credit, can be a source of instability. While there is a vigorous debate on the benefits and costs of the financial sector, there is no direct evidence of whether more finance is related to a higher probability of future systemic banking crises. By using panel data for 150 countries from 1960 to 2009, I find that a larger quantity of finance measured by the ratio of private credit to GDP is associated with a higher probability of future systemic banking crises, a result that is robust to excluding the recent global financial crisis. This effect is stronger for countries whose quantity of private credit is relatively larger. An increase in the equity market capitalization relative to the outstanding

credit is associated with a lower probability of a systemic banking crisis.