Statistics Seminar（2016-20）

Topic:The World's First Fully Bayesian Official Statistics

Speaker:John Bryant, Senior Researcher, Statistics New Zealand

Time:Thursday, 27 October, 14:00-15:00

Place:Room 217, Guanghua Building 2

Abstract:

In 2015, Statistics New Zealand released mortality estimates based on fully Bayesian statistical methods. As far as we know, this is the first time that a government statistical agency anywhere in the world has published official statistics based on 100% Bayesian methods. Statistics New Zealand is currently expanding the use of Bayesian methods to other outputs. There has been substantial international interest in this work. In the talk, we will argue that Bayesian methods are particularly appropriate for the type of estimation problems that government statistical agencies now face. We will give some examples of the methods we have developed for demographic estimation and forecasting. We will also look at some of the particular challenges that arise when using complex statistical methods for government statistics.

Introduction:

John Bryant is a demographer and statistician. He is a Senior Researcher at Statistics New Zealand and a Visiting Fellow at the University of Southampton. He has a PhD in Demography from the Australian National University. He has worked at universities in Thailand and New Zealand, and at the New Zealand Ministry of Finance, as well as doing consultancies for UN agencies and the World Bank. Together with Junni Zhang, he is writing a book for CRC Press on Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting.

Your participation is warmly welcomed!